Macroeconomic outlook
The present Section contains projections and estimates of main macroeconomic indicators for Armenia, as well as other countries in the region and the global economy. Sources for projections and estimates are various: Government of Armenia, IMF, World Bank and other international organizations. It may also contain some estimates by independent agencies.
- Forecast of main macroeconomic indicators of Armenia
- Economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries
- Global economic growth forecasts
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
||
| Actual | Budget 2014 |
MTEF 2015-2017 | ||||
|
GDP |
3.5 |
5.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
5.7 |
|
Inflation, average consumer prices |
5.8 |
5.5 |
3.0 |
4.0 | 4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Current account balance (% of GDP) |
-8.0 |
-8.6 |
-9.8 |
-8.5 | -7.9 |
-7.1 |
|
Exports of goods |
8.6 |
10.0 |
8.7 |
9.5 | 10.0 |
10.0 |
|
Imports of goods |
0.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
6.0 |
Աղյուսակ 1.2-2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|||
| Actual | IMF |
ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF |
||
|
GDP |
3.5 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
3.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
4.1 |
|
Inflation, average consumer prices |
5.8 |
1.8 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Current account balance (% of GDP) |
-8.0 |
-7.7 |
-8.7 |
-7.3 |
-8.0 |
-7.1 |
-6.8 |
|
Exports of goods |
8.6 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
|
Imports of goods |
0.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||
|
GDP |
3.5 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
5.0 |
|
Inflation, average consumer prices |
5.8 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
|
Current account balance (% of GDP) |
-8.0 |
-7.2 |
-8.7 |
-6.8 |
-8.0 |
-6.6 |
-6.5 |
|
Exports of goods |
8.6 |
8.8 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
|
Imports of goods |
0.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||
| Actual | Budget 2013 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
Budget 2014 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
MTEF 2014-2016 |
|
| GDP | 7.2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices |
2.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -11.2 | -9.2 | -9.5 | -8.0 | -8.6 | -6.3 | -4.3 |
| Exports of goods |
2.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 14.5 | 15.5 |
| Imports of goods |
2.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||||
| Oct 2012 | Apr 2013 | Oct 2012 | Apr 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | ||
| GDP | 7.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -11.2 | -9.3 | -9.6 | -9.8 | -9.8 | -8.6 | -9.6 | -7.6 | -7.2 |
| Exports of goods | 2.5 | 3.2 | 7.6 | na | 8.5 | 11.1 | na | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| Imports of goods | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | na | 6.5 | 3.8 | na | 5.1 | 7.0 |
Table 3: IMF, ADB and RA Government's forecast of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2012-2014, %
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
2014
|
|||||
|
|
Actual
|
IMF
|
ADB
|
Budget
|
IMF
|
ADB
|
MTEF
|
IMF
|
MTEF
|
Economic growth
|
4.7
|
3.8
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
4.0
|
4.8
|
Inflation (average)
|
7.7
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
4.3
|
4.0
|
3.9
|
Current account balance/GDP
|
11.0
|
-11.0
|
-11.2
|
-9.8
|
-9.5
|
-10.0
|
-8.9
|
-8.4
|
-7.5
|
Exports growth
|
32.6
|
8.3
|
8.0
|
13.5
|
8.3
|
11.0
|
10.5
|
6.9
|
9.0
|
Imports growth
|
14.3
|
4.9
|
4.5
|
5.2
|
3.0
|
6.0
|
6.0
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
Budget – 2012 Budget Message of the Government of Armenia, MTEF - 2012-2014 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia
IMF forecasts of economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries, %*
